system_of_knowledgefandomcom-20200216-history
Future timeline
http://www.futuretimeline.net/ 2004 Graphene is isolated by Andrey Geim and Konstantin Novoselov, 2010 Nobel prize. High-quality graphene is extremely strong (up to 300 times stronger than steel), light, nearly transparent and conducts electricity better than copper. 2008 Despite the ongoing financial crisis, the Internet continued to grow at a phenomenal pace. By 2008, Google had processed over 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) unique URLs, whilst the number of individual web pages was growing by several billion per day and the number of individual users had reached 1.5 billion. The Internet could now be accessed virtually anywhere, by numerous means. Mobile phones, smartphones, datacards, laptops, handheld games consoles and cellular routers allowed users to connect to the Internet from anywhere that had a cellular network supporting that device's technology. Broadband was becoming ubiquitous. Recent trends included the rise of social networking sites (such as Facebook), social bookmarking (such as Digg) and a huge increase in blogging, micro-blogging, wiki sites, music downloads, video sharing and podcasts. Online gaming was now becoming immensely popular. It was no longer a niche market, but very much part of mainstream entertainment – with some games generating more revenue than blockbuster movies. Users could participate in highly realistic battle simulations (such as the Call of Duty series), racing games, or MMORPGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games) such as World of Warcraft; or they could explore and interact with entire virtual worlds (as in Second Life) and engage in the trading of virtual goods and services. (So far: 1) new materials, 2) expansion of Internet) 2009 3d scanning enters the consumer market 2010 USA cancelled the Constellation program for return of man to the Moon. (Capitalism acts as a break on development of productive forces) A cell with man-made DNA code was created (3) development of biotechnology) 2011 In June 2011, surgeons in Sweden carried out the world's first synthetic organ transplant.* A 36 year old man, suffering from terminal cancer of the trachea, received a completely new replacement windpipe. This was achieved with a nanotechnology scaffold made from spongy, flexible polymer and seeded with his own stem cells in a bioreactor. The scaffold was based on 3D scans moulded to the exact dimensions of his trachea. The cells were grown on the scaffold for just two days before transplantation into the patient. Since the cells used to regenerate the trachea were the patient's own, there was no chance of rejection by his immune system. In 2011, Intel began production of a new 22 nanometre (nm) processor. Codenamed Ivy Bridge, it was the first high-volume chip to use 3D transistors. These new "Tri-Gate" transistors were a fundamental departure from the two-dimensional "planar" structure used in the past. They could operate at lower voltage, with lower leakage, providing an unprecedented combination of improved performance and energy efficiency. Dramatic innovations across a wide range of electronics – from computers to cellphones, household appliances to medical devices – would now be possible.* Between 2008 and 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than doubled, from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million. (4) Development of electronics, following Moore's law, 5) development of robotics and 3D printing technologies) 2013 In terms of scientific output, China had been closing the gap between itself and the developed world for a number of years. Research papers were being published at an accelerating rate, as millions more students were entering universities and the country became more developed. At the same time, the United States had seen a marked decline in its own scientific and technological research. In 2004, China passed the UK, becoming second in terms of academic studies. The gap finally closed in 2013, as even the United States fell behind China.* (China is becoming a knowledge leader) 2014 14 nm transistors are released by Intel Consumer use of the Internet first became popular through dial-up access in the 1990s.Number of people working on Internet is increasing faster than the global population. This is a significant step towards global enlightenment, an essential condition for global revolution. During the first decade of the 21st century,[http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2014.htm#ref24bmany people in developed nations began using faster broadband technologies. In September 2014, a significant landmark was reached as the global average connection speed reportedly hit 4.6 Mbit/s – exceeding the minimum 4 Mbit/s threshold to meet the broadband criteria.[http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2014.htm#ref25b * South Korea had the fastest speed of any country (24.6 Mbit/s), with Hong Kong in second place (15.7 Mbit/s), followed by Switzerland and Japan in joint fourth position (14.9 Mbit/s). The average speed in the United States was 11.4 Mbit/s, 14th in the world. Four of the top 10 countries/regions experienced year-on-year increases of more than 50% in average connection speeds, led by South Korea's 84% annual rise. Yearly increases were seen in 136 countries ranging from 1.2% in the United Arab Emirates (4.6 Mbps) to 197% in Uruguay (5.6 Mbps). Checkout operators of retail chains are increasingly being replaced with automated systems, in order to save costs and improve efficiency. The customer simply scans the items themselves, and is prompted via on-screen instructions and audio to insert their method of payment. In 2009, around 100,000 self-service checkouts were installed worldwide. By 2014, this number has more than quadrupled. (Actually, development of this trend we see in everyday supermarkets, when we weigh and price our fruits and vegetables. 6) Automation) 7) Imperialism in crisis: Although combat operations (in Afghanistan) were intended to end by 31st December 2014, several thousand training personnel, Special Operations and military assets would remain until 2024, to support Afghanistan's army and police forces, ensuring the country did not fall back into chaos.* Furthermore, $16bn in development aid – closely monitored to avoid corruption or mismanagement – would assist the nation in rebuilding itself.* 2015 Trend #8: development of electric vehicles. In 2010, there were about 25,000 electric cars on the world's roads. This number grew exponentially during the next five years,* reaching over a million by the end of 2015. Pure electric car sales were led by Japan with a 28% market share of global sales, followed by the United States with a 26% share, China at 16%, France with 11% and Norway with 7%.* On a per capita basis, the leaders by far were Norway (6.1%) and the Netherlands (5.55%) with Iceland (0.94%) considerably behind in third place.* The biggest electric car companies were Nissan, GM/Opel, Toyota, Tesla and Ford. Arguably the greatest advance was an ongoing fall in the price of batteries; from an average of $900/kWh in 2010, to under $600/kWh in 2015 and forecast to reach $300/kWh by 2020. Battery production would see a dramatic increase with Tesla's "Gigafactories" beginning in 2017.* Tesla was also constructing a "supercharger network", offering high-speed charges for free. By the end of 2015, around 98 percent of the US population would lie within range of a station. Networks were being established in Europe and Asia too. 2016 Automation in mining: Recent years have seen a rapid increase in the use of automation, a trend that is becoming especially prevalent in the mining sector. Rio Tinto, for example, now has a fleet of self-driving haul trucks which together are responsible for over half of its total material moved.** Codelco, meanwhile, has installed automated IT systems which now cover both its open pit mines along with all underground operations.* Wireless, intelligent devices are able to communicate with each other to monitor environmental conditions and to automate control of the mines' technological systems and equipment. Self-driving vehicles, robotic drills, remote ship loading and other systems – despite their greater efficiency and improved safety – are now having a major impact on employment and economic activity. This is particularly true of Indigenous Australians in remote communities, for whom the mining industry has been their biggest employer. Some companies have promoted Aboriginal training, scholarships and business development, to provide the skills needed for new hi-tech jobs created by automation. However, the bulk of entry-level jobs are disappearing.* As the use of robots and tele-operated machinery continues to increase, mining has begun to expand into new environments and locations that were previously off-limits to humans. This includes the seafloor, rich in metals like gold, copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt.** Longer term plans are being made to exploit asteroids.* 2024 3D printing – having emerged as a mainstream consumer technology – is now so cheap, fast and easy to use that it can produce items of clothing for just a few cents.* A milestone was passed in 2014 when 3D printing became faster than injection moulding.* The speed of printing continued to increase, doubling every two years in a trend similar to Moore's Law. By 2024, it is over 30 times faster, so an item which took four hours to print in 2014 now takes just seven and a half minutes.* Millions of open-source designs are available to download. Sweatshops in the developing world are declining as a side effect, with low-paid factory jobs made increasingly obsolete. Crisis of capitalism: "soaring unemployment": Blue collar workers had traditionally borne the brunt of layoffs from technological unemployment. This time, white collar jobs were no longer safe either.*Advanced robotics, increasingly sophisticated algorithms, deep learning networks, exponential growth in computer processing power and bandwidth, voice/facial recognition and other tech – all were paving the way towards a highly automated society. By 2025, transport was among the sectors feeling the biggest impacts.* The idea of self-driving vehicles had once been science fiction, but money was being poured into research and development. In 2015, the first licenced autonomous truck was announced. These hi-tech vehicles saw rapid adoption. Initially they required a driver to be present, who could take over in case of emergencies, but later versions were fully autonomous.* In the US alone, there were 3.5 million truck drivers, with a further 5.2 million people in non-driving jobs that were dependent on the truck-driving industry, such as highway cafes and motels where drivers would stop to eat, drink, rest and sleep. A similar trend would follow with other vehicle types,* such as taxis, alongside public transport including trains – notably the London Underground. Manufacturing was another area seeing rapid change. This sector had already witnessed heavy automation in earlier decades, in the form of robots capable of constructing cars. In general, however, these machines were limited to a fixed set of pre-defined movements – repetitive actions performed over and over again. Robots with far more adaptability and dynamism would emerge during the early 21st century Other examples of automation included self-service checkouts,* later followed by more advanced forms of "instant" payment via a combination of RFID tracking and doorway scanners* (which also enabled stock levels to be monitored and audited without humans). Cafes and restaurants had begun using a system of touchscreen displays, tablets and mobile apps to improve the speed and accuracy of the order process,* with many establishments also providing machines to rapidly create and dispense meals/drinks,* particularly in fast food chains like McDonalds. 3D printing was another emerging trend, which by the 2020s had become a mainstream consumer phenomenon for the home* and was increasingly used in large-scale formats and industrial settings too; even for the construction of buildings and vehicles. By 2040, traditional manufacturing jobs had been largely eliminated in the US* and many other Western societies. Meanwhile, the ability to quickly and cheaply print shoes, clothing and other personal items was impacting large numbers of jobs in developing nations, particularly those in Asian sweatshops. In the United States and most other developed nations, manufacturing has gone the same way as agriculture – vitally important, yet employing very few people. Robots, automation and 3D printing, now sufficiently perfected after decades of development, have taken over a wide range of roles once performed by humans.*** Some of the most cherished political, economic and social structures have been turned on their heads. In a sense, capitalism remains the dominant economic model, but is now evolving drastically in response to ecological impacts,* resource scarcity,* demographic trends,* technology* and a host of other factors.* (Bull!) The endless consumer culture that was prevalent throughout the first world has all but collapsed, replaced by a societal need to conserve.* Though there are still many wealthy people around, money is concentrated in a shrinking upper class. By 2050, "traditional" free market capitalism is largely viewed as a broken system.*** As more and more wealth trickles upwards to the hyper-rich elite, there is a growing consensus that money itself – the profit motive – is a major obstacle to future progress, and a new driving force may be required for civilisation to flourish. Debates are raging on what reforms to make in order to adapt societies to this rapidly changing world. People everywhere sense that a great transition is approaching, the likes of which has never been seen before in all of human history.* It is clear that some new global paradigm will appear; but it is still unclear what this will be. (Anothe indicator of the decline of the Industrial era is the decline in the number of hours "worked": from 80 or more per week, in XIX century, to less than 40 in XXI century.) Newspapers going out of circulation. This is one of the signs of the decline of the era of the industrial revolution. The first printing press was invented by William Caxton in 1476. This led to further developments in mechanical movable type and a huge increase of printing activities over subsequent centuries. During the 1600s, various publications would spread both news and rumours – such as pamphlets, posters and ballads. The English Civil War (1642–1651) greatly increased the demand for news. Among the first real "newspapers" were the Oxford Gazette (1665), Berrow's Worcester Journal (1690) and Daily Courant (1702). By the 1720s, there were 12 London newspapers and 24 provincial papers. The first English journalist to achieve national importance was Daniel Defoe (1660–1731). During the 18th and 19th centuries, the Industrial Revolution allowed production methods to be improved, print runs to be greatly increased and newspapers to be sold at lower cost. Circulation of The Times rose from 5,000 copies in 1815 to 10,000 in 1834 and 40,000 by 1851; about 80% of the entire market. The period from 1860 to 1910 was considered a "golden age" of newspaper publication, with further technical advances in printing and communication – combined with a more professional style of journalism and the prominence of new owners. Socialist, labour and trade union papers began to proliferate. In 1896,The Daily Mail was first published and became the first daily newspaper aimed at the newly literate "lower-middle class market resulting from mass education, combining a low retail price with plenty of competitions, prizes and promotional gimmicks." The rapid rise of the Internet – providing instant and free access to information – accelerated the decline of the newspaper industry. A major factor was the emergence of smartphones, tablets and other handheld, web-enabled devices, becoming cheap and widely available. By 2015, none of the remaining UK papers had a daily circulation above two million. The overall circulation of newspapers declined by 6.6% in 2014–15, with further declines in the following decade, resulting in the end of printed national newspapers in Britain. (Decline in oil discovery and production is anothe sign of decline of the era of the Industrial revolution) (Another sign is the decline in the number of Christians and decline in religious people in general). (Another indicator of the end of the epoch should be a decline in marriage and rise in various poly relationships. ) Our civilization is making a transition "O" on the Kardashev scale to "civilization I", which collects all the energy of the sun falling on our surface. Next step will be "civilization II", which is able to completely use the energy of its star. "Civilization III" is able to use all the energy of its galaxy, including that of the black holes. Category:Knowledge as the main productive force Category:Preparatory notes